IMF Lifts 2025 Global Growth Forecast Amid Easing Tariffs

 

🌍 IMF Lifts 2025 Global Growth Forecast Amid Easing Tariffs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global growth forecast upward to 3.2 % for 2025, compared to its previous estimate of 3.0 %. The improvement reflects the easing impact of global tariffs, resilient private-sector demand, and improving consumer sentiment across advanced and emerging economies.

According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (released October 14, 2025), the modest rebound is being driven by stronger-than-expected growth in Asia, particularly China and India, where domestic demand and tech-related exports have remained buoyant. The IMF also noted a “mild cyclical recovery” in Europe, supported by lower energy prices and improved business investment.

However, the Fund cautioned that risks remain tilted to the downside. Renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, ongoing supply-chain reconfigurations, and elevated sovereign debt in several emerging markets could derail momentum. The report also emphasized that tariff reductions have helped temper inflation, but warned that “fragmentation in global trade remains a medium-term concern.”

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas remarked that while the global economy has shown “remarkable resilience,” the path forward is uneven — with developing economies facing higher borrowing costs and currency volatility.

The IMF expects global inflation to ease to around 3.6 % in 2025, down from 5.8 % in 2023, largely due to stabilized food and energy prices and fading supply bottlenecks.

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 Regional Breakdown (Highlights)

• United States: Growth forecast raised to 2.1 %, as consumer spending remains solid and labor markets show gradual cooling.

• Euro Area: Revised upward to 1.3 %, helped by easing inflation and higher business confidence.

• China: Expected growth at 4.8 %, supported by domestic stimulus and manufacturing resilience despite trade pressures.

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Forecast at 3.9 %, with improved commodity exports and digital infrastructure expansion driving optimism.