La Niña Conditions May Return and what it means

 

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that since March 2025, climate conditions in the tropical Pacific have been ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). World Meteorological Organization+2World Meteorological Organization+2

• But forecasts now suggest a shift toward La Niña may begin in September 2025, with a ~55% probability for the period September–November. United Nations+3World Meteorological Organization+3Reuters+3

• For October–December 2025, the likelihood of La Niña rises slightly to about 60%. The Guardian+3United Nations Office at Geneva+3World Meteorological Organization+3

• The WMO also notes that even if La Niña returns, global temperatures are still expected to remain above average in many regions. World Meteorological Organization+2United Nations Office at Geneva+2

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🧭 What La Niña Usually Means

When La Niña sets in, its effects on weather tend to be the opposite of El Niño. Some typical patterns:

• Cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific

• Altered rainfall patterns (e.g. increased rainfall in some tropical areas, drought tendencies in others)

• Changes in the jet stream and storm tracks, influencing weather extremes (floods, droughts) in various regions

• Impacts on agriculture, water supply, energy demand, wildfire risk, and disaster preparedness

Because climate change is pushing baseline temperatures upward, a La Niña’s cooling influence may be muted, and many places may still see above-normal heat. World Meteorological Organization+2The Guardian+2

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